December 15, 2017

Earthquake Prediction Techniques Challenged in Japan

“Now that we have the benefit of hindsight, many scientists and geophysicists in Japan are now engaged in an argument about whether the earthquake prediction systems followed in Japan are dependable and have a level of acceptable accuracy.


earthquake prediction

Robert Geller, a professor of geophysics at the University of Tokyo says that he has facts to back up his claim that it is just not possible to accurately predict earthquakes.

Mr. Geller’s main support for his view lies with the fact that the recent earthquakes struck in areas where the Japanese earthquake prediction had modeled that there was only a 0.01% (very small) probability of an earthquake striking.

This is the same region, which was hit by that massive 9 magnitude Earthquake on March 11th 2011.

Citing this, Robert Geller has asked the Japanese Government to convey to the public that it’s not possible to predict the Earthquakes.

In addition to Mr. Geller’s findings, there is clear dissension in the academic and Japanese earthquake predicting community. It should be noted that a 1979 law requires the Japan Meteorologial Agency to monitor Japan and the surrounding offshore areas for any earthquake activity, which is then reported to a panel of experts.

Their claim is that the current predicting system has been designed to work only for the region Southwest of Tokyo.”

For more information, visit http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-13/japan-must-stop-forecasting-big-tokyo-quake-as-models-flawed-geller-says.html

Comments

  1. David Berger says:

    http://www.youtube.com/user/NewMexicoGeologist

    Earthquakes of “all magnitudes” are easily SCIENTIFICALLY detected, mapped for intensity, pinpointed, fault line determined, and depth determined “BEFORE THEY STRIKE”. Each earthquake has its own Earthquake Cell which is detectable/mappable before and after the earthquake strikes, making all of the above possible.

    I show how its done at: http://www.youtube.com/user/NewMexicoGeologist

    Earthquakes are scientifically detectable before they strike, because of the pressure that already exists in the ground before an earthquake can strike. The rock strata within the earth gives off the signals that you can track to the epicenter by locating the most pressure.

    Once you have located the epicenter, then you find the depth to the hypocenter before the earthquake strikes. At the epicenter, you measure the total amount of piezo-pressure coming off of the rock that is eminated upwards and outwards from the foci, the epicenter shows maximum pressure at ground level.

    Once you have located and mapped the epicenter, then you start moving outward from the epicenter and take intensity readings which will later be plotted on an intensity map showing how large the earthquake cell is before and after the earthquake.

    For the smaller micro-earthquakes you may have hours to weeks in order to map such earthquake cells. For larger earthquake cells that will cause destruction at the surface, you usually have days to weeks in order to map such an earthquake cell, that is because the larger earthquake cells increase in magnitude/size/intensity over a period of days to weeks before they strike, which by-the-way is all detectable as it occurs.

    Intensity readings for a normal M3.0 earthquake with a depth of 2 miles will be detectable outwards for over 60 miles (100 kilometers) unless scrunched by another earthquake cell.

    One of the SCIENTIFIC LAWS of EARTHQUAKES by David Berger states: Earthquakes that cause destruction at the surface of the earth are always detectable before they strike, unless they are: (1) manmade, (2) caused by an extraterrestrial source, (3) too deep to be detected, (4) too far away from a sensor to be detected, or (5) cloaked by a larger earthquake – in which case; it basically is detectable since the intensity is so high.

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